Citiwire.net

For Release Sunday, December 14, 2008
Citiwire.net

In 1893, Frederick Jackson Turner bemoaned the closing of the western frontier. Until then, unfettered expansion onto free land had been the nation’s development dream, even though it required forcibly dislocating its Native Americans. By the 1890s Census, however, the unrelenting flow of humanity, along with setting aside Native American reservations, had brought settlement to points across the untamed wilderness of the West. The closing of the western frontier undermined America’s hopes for the future.

This year, 2008, may mark the closing of another frontier–the greenfields frontier. For over a half century, the nation has experienced unfettered expansion of human settlements, urban and rural, onto low cost greenfields.

A piece of earth and a car to drive has been central to the current development dream, resulting in explosive low density sprawl. New communities sprung up so quickly, and randomly, that they overwhelmed city annexation, even if it had been desired. But it wasn’t. Part of the dream was to flee the problems of the cities and set up new, more perfect, communities.

Instead, the new communities grew independently, often with little knowledge of their neighbors’ actions. Typically just in times of crises would they came together to deliver common services, such as sewer and water.

Yet as they morphed into interdependent regions, a handful made compacts to shape their future development more cooperatively. The Portland, Ore., and Minneapolis-St. Paul regions have planning and service districts that are responsible for preparing and overseeing the implementation of regional compacts to shape growth. Others, such as the Denver region, have negotiated voluntary growth boundaries, along with principles for guiding future development. These regional compacts have resulted in more cost-effective public services, but not impenetrable barriers to development by those who can finance their own roads and other services.

Volatile fuel costs are already threatening the greenfields frontier. Decades of unrestrained growth have slowed dramatically in recent months. Developments on the edges of regions are not selling, and the foreclosure rates on sold houses are at historic highs. The trickle of humanity that was already selling its McMansions on the fringe and moving into townhouses close to public transit could become a flood. Regions are imploding and the prospects for returning to boundless expansion are as likely as finding a cheap replacement for gasoline.

Again, while the closing of the greenfields frontier will cause a national sense of loss, the shift will bring positives. Infill development might even be a godsend. Uncontrolled sprawl was already resulting in expensive, duplicative services and infrastructure. Infill growth should result in fewer roads and more walk-to-services, reducing taxpayer costs.

And if future growth is based more on downtowns and close-in neighborhoods rather than geographic expansion, then communities across the country will be more motivated to negotiate cooperative compacts to shape their development, indeed negotiating the “deal of all deals” to assure a high quality coexistence between existing and new residents.

Global warming could close the greenfields frontier decisively. In his new book Six Degrees, Mark Lynas describes the alarming impact of raising the earth’s temperature by six degrees Celsius, one degree at a time. By the time CO2 emissions raise the temperature by 2 to 3 degrees–which will potentially happen in the lifetimes of our children if CO2 emissions are not reduced–the combination of melted snow pack, high winds, widespread drought, coastline flooding, and violent storms will already be redistributing humanity to less-impacted areas. By the time CO2 emissions raise the temperature by 4 to 5 degrees–which could potentially occur in the lifetimes of our grandchildren–irreversible changes, such as the burning of rain forests and the eruption of methane hydrates in warmer oceans, will be driving what’s left of humanity to the highest mountains, the plains of Canada and Russia, and even the former polar ice caps.

The impact of global warming will be more dramatic than $4 a gallon gas. Just preserving productive greenfields, such as forests that consume CO2 emissions, or farmland that can tolerate higher temperatures, might require making them off limits to future development.

The closing of the greenfields frontier could open the door for a challenging new one. Instead of being dependent on boundless land expansion like earlier frontiers, this frontier could focus on making already developed regions more energy self-sufficient. It could foster creative adaptation to climate change, greater economic equity, and expanded resource renewal to assure a more secure future for our children and grandchildren. The once-in-a-lifetime investments in new infrastructure proposed in federal and state economic stimulus programs offer a timely opportunity to explore the possibilities of this new frontier.

Opening the renewable frontier is a daunting challenge, but perhaps, as well, our best hope for the survival of humanity.

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